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Date:2021-8-17  click:1292

The Covid-19 crisis caused a historic decline in global oil demand in 2020, but not necessarily a lasting one. In the absence of major policy changes from governments and more rapid changes in behaviour, global oil demand is set to increase for years to come.

But when it comes to individual products, demand for gasoline might never return to pre-pandemic levels as efficiency gains and the shift to electric vehicles eclipse robust mobility growth in the developing world. Despite efforts to curb plastics use and encourage recycling, demand for plastics and petrochemicals is growing strongly. As for regional consumption trends, Asia continues to dominate growth. By contrast, demand in many advanced economies, where vehicle ownership and oil use per capita are much higher, is not expected to return to pre-crisis levels.

To meet the expected growth in oil demand over the coming years, producers from the Middle East will lead the global supply increase, largely from existing shut-in capacity. The region’s expanding market share would mark a dramatic shift from recent years when the United States dominated growth. As for the downstream, Covid-19 left the world with a refinery capacity overhang that recent closures have only just begun to correct.
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